Good morning folks, not much has changed with regard to the going forecast for Arctic cold and wind tonight into Saturday, a very cold weekend, ending with a major snowstorm capable of delivering 8-16” across the entire greater WMass region, with some pockets of 16”+ in some areas, especially east-facing elevated hilltops.

The Nutshell above contains a lot of details, but I will run through the aspects of the forecast below in sections.

ARCTIC COLD BLAST TONIGHT
Highs today will reach well into the 20s but an Arctic front will sweep the region from northwest to southeast this afternoon, and empty the coldest air of the season into our region overnight and into Saturday.

A few snow showers may accompany this passage, but likely north of the Rt. 2 corridor with a few fresh dustings possible.

Otherwise, the story will be northwest winds picking up and gusting 25-40mph overnight, dropping lows into the -10º to 5º range, and wind chills down as low as -25º at times, so be sure to bundle up as Winter takes a bite out of us.

Highs on Saturday will only reach the single digits to low teens under partly sunny skies, with lows either side of 0º, and highs only in the teens on Sunday as clouds thicken in the morning and snow arrives by afternoon.

UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH NEXT WEEK
Highs Monday through much of next week will only reach the mid teens to low 20s as PLENTY of cold air continues to be sourced from adjacent Canada, with lows expected to drop into the single digits. Fair weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday.

MAJOR SNOWSTORM SUNDAY / MONDAY
The northern branch of energy sweep south through the western Plains states and hooks up with Pacific energy out fo the southwest U.S. and the two will join forces and at the moment, look to phase pretty well and then proceed east-northeast towards the Ohio Valley on Saturday.

This will cause a major ice storm in parts of the South and heavy snow just north of there in the middle third of the eastern half of the country as the primary storm pushes towards the Appalachian Mountains Saturday night into early Sunday.

By Sunday morning our primary storm will begin to hand off energy to the Delaware coastline and form a secondary low which will pass near or just inside The Benchmark (about 75 iles south of Nantucket, a classic spot for storm tracks that generate substantial southern New England snowstorms).

It will be EXCEEDINGLY dry and cold Sunday morning in the greater WMass region, so as snow arrives aloft by mid morning or so, it will evaporate before reaching the ground.

The wall of precipitation that should be generated by this incoming storm will be so consistent that eventually it will become humid enough throughout the atmospheric column that snow will reach the ground by late morning to early afternoon depending on where you live.

It will have been so cold at the surface that snow will accumulate immediately, so travel will go downhill pretty quickly. In addition, road treatments don’t work very well in temps that are in the single digits to low teens, so if you must travel you MUST practice substantial caution, and assume you’ll get stuck somewhere so bring tools with you to unstick yourself.

Snow will become heavy at times by mid to late afternoon and especially Sunday night through about midnight or so, prior to a dry slot punching through and cutting off the heavy snow rates. Freezing drizzle may result in the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning, or periods of light snow.

On Monday, we’ll still have the upper low and a low-level trough connecting the storm and the upper low to drift east through the region, and as very cold air aloft pushes overhead, that could cause instability and periods of light to even moderate snow with additional accumulations into Monday evening.

As mentioned in the Nutshell, a widespread 8-16” is expected, with some pockets of 14-20” possible in east-facing high terrain areas like the eastern Berkshires, western hilltowns, southern Greens and even some hilltops in northern CT, or the northern Worcester Hills back into eastern Franklin County.

WIND AND OUTAGES
I expect some breeziness with this system as a cold high will be to our northeast, but the storm itself doesn’t look all that deep in terms of its pressure, so if any blizzard conditions were to form, it would likely be over eastern coastal areas, but I will keep an eye on it. Snow should be very fluffy and easier to push around, and so outages are not really expected at this time.

BUST POTENTIAL
Every storm carries it, and we’re still 48-72 hours out.

How fast does the dry slot move into the region?

How far north does it push?

Do northward low pressure trends continue to make the snow wetter south of the Pike or even cause some sleet to mix into parts of northern CT?

Where do the heavy snow bands set up, and how much subsidence, or sinking air do they cause on either side of them reducing totals in those small areas?

I will keep an eye on it all and update you as we get closer. For now bundle up, have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell