Good morning folks, a number of areas have seen rain totals of a half inch up to 3” or so in the greater WMass region, with overnight rainfall mostly relegated to the Berkshires and northwest CT with a bit in southwest VT as well. That is going to change this morning as a band of moderate to heavy rainfall, torrential at times, is already pivoting northeast to north through southern CT and entering northern CT during this early morning period.

This new round of rainfall will continue north into WMass, CMass and eventually SVT and SWNH, and consequently lead to areas of flash flooding in the high terrain and street flooding in multiple areas as drainage and surfaces are overwhelmed by heavy rain rates.

It will be cool today with highs only in the mid 60s to low 70s which is far below seasonable temperatures for late July!

We’ve got a vertically-stacked (i.e. slow-moving) low pressure center near the NYC metro and that will drift northeast into southwest CT while expanding its center eastward.

This will help to take the south-north rain band of rainfall that has acted like a firehose and produced multiple Flash Flood Warnings over eastern NY overnight while keeping the Litchfield Hills, Berkshires and far southwest VT wet, and pivot that rain band northeast and then north into the greater WMass region during the course of the morning and into the afternoon.

With strong easterly and southeasterly flow, and some wind gusts in the high terrain, this will help produce torrential rain at times in our region, especially in the high terrain of WMass and CMass, where Flash Flood Warnings will likely be scattered about, along with areas of street flooding today and into this evening.

Rainfall should continue to lift north into SVT and SWNH for tonight and start to break up, as rain lessens over WMass, CMass and northern CT, but showers will still be possible with lows in the 50s.

On Thursday, our upper low will be drifting east over the region, which will keep scattered showers of varying intensity wetting parts of the region with dry lulls in other parts. It will be mostly cloudy, and a generally dreary day with scattered activity and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 50s.

By Friday, a few isolated showers are possible but we should be mostly dry with partly sunny skies expected and highs well into the 70s with lows in the 55-60º range as we continue to dry out.

Saturday is the pick of the weekend for sure with sunshine and highs in the 70s to low 80s as high pressure builds briefly into the region.

On Sunday, however, I will likely be watching another frontal boundary push east towards southwest New England with more rainfall looking more likely for Sunday night into Monday with some thunderstorm activity possible by Monday ahead of an incoming front.

The Sunday to Tuesday period looks seasonably warm with highs in the mid 70s to low to mid 80s and by Tuesday fair weather should be in place through our region with plenty of sunshine.

I will update later as today is the peak of our heavy rain event, with slowly-improving conditions by later Thursday into the weekend.

Have a great day and (try to) stay dry!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–We’ve been raining overnight in the Berkshires, far southwest VT, and northwest CT
–Rain is rebuilding over southern CT, and will pivot up and into northern CT, WMass, CMass and points north by mid-morning into early afternoon
–Highs reach the mid 60s to low 70s with lows in the 50s
–Flash flooding and street flooding are expected in spots with torrential rain at times, some thunder possible
–Most of us see 1-4” of rainfall by Thursday noon, but some will see 3-6”, especially in the high terrain of WMass and CMass, and I can’t rule out over 6″ in spots
–Heaviest rain ends later tonight and shifts east
–Upper low tracks into New England Thursday with mostly cloudy skies, and periods of showers, some on the heavier side
–Highs upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday and lows in the 50s
–By Friday, some isolated showers with a few sunny breaks are expected as the slow-moving upper low weakens and drifts east and away
–Highs reach the 70s with lows near 60º
–Saturday is the pick of the weekend with partly to mostly sunny skies expected and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s as position between systems
–Sunday may start off sunny, but a frontal boundary approaches from the west by evening with more rainfall expected, including a chance for thunderstorms developing into Monday with highs in the 70s to low 80s, with fair weather returning for Tuesday

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:40am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:12am this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 32 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 8:30pm this evening
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Southeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 6:31am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Southwest
–MOON PHASE: Waning Gibbous (99.8% Illumination)