Good morning folks, we’ve got a slow-moving pattern ahead for much of the rest of the week that will be conducive of heavy rain, torrential at times with street flooding expected along with isolated to perhaps scattered instances of flash flooding. The heaviest activity will likely fall later tonight through Wednesday night, with more isolated to scattered bouts of variously-intense rainfall Thursday and even Friday as our upper low lollygags through New England like an aimless wanderer spinning around in a mental eddy of confusion and bewilderment… oh wait, that’s just yours truly! ;-) Let’s jump into the details, shall we?

We’re starting off with some patchy fog and clouds are increasing this morning with a lead impulse already pushing heavy rain towards the Hudson River Valley in eastern NY during this early Tuesday morning.

Clouds will continue to thicken, highs will reach the 70s but likely rise no further, and we’ll start to see isolated or widely scattered showers and even some downpours or thunder rumbles in northwest CT, the Berkshires and SVT late this morning into the afternoon.

By this evening, broad surface low pressure will be tracking east into NY and coming closer to the greater WMass region, drawing very moist air from south of New England through our region with flow that will initially be out of the south, and then out of the southeast tomorrow.

This likely causes some southerly to southeasterly wind gusts of 15-30mph at times.

Lows dip to either side of 60º tonight and Wednesday night, and Wednesday highs hang in the mid 60s to mid 70s, which will likely repeat for Thursday as well.

The southeasterly flow will be pressed up and into the valley and the western hilltowns, Berkshires, Taconics, southern Greens and Litchfield Hills by low pressure to our west and southwest, and this will cause heavy rain to fall at times by either side of sunset, and certainly toward midnight in these areas, increasing coverage into the pre-dawn and early morning hours of our Wednesday.

The collision of warm, moist air sent over mountains like the Berkshires is called “orographic uplift” and it can wring out heavier precipitation totals, so that’s my concern for where heaviest rain could set up with this system, and hence where my flash flood concern is placed at the moment.

Areas east of the CT River Valley will see some isolated showers, but should hold off on much of the heavier stuff until Wednesday and Wednesday night when we likely all get into some periods of heavy rain or torrential downpours which should cause street flooding to form in spots.

So, the heaviest rain will fall basically midnight Wednesday morning to midnight Thursday morning, and while 1-4” is a good estimate for most of us, some areas may see up to 6” or so of heavy rainfall, especially in high-terrain areas west of I-91 by early Thursday morning.

The late-week period will feature a very slow-moving upper trough that is prevented from escaping east due to stronger ridging to our east and northeast which will slow its progress out of our region.

This means that while the heaviest rain is gone by Thursday, we’ll still see periods of rainfall of various intensity Thursday, Thursday night and even Friday, with dry periods mixed in as well.

Highs will reach the 70s by Friday after a cooler Wednesday and Thursday (mid 60s to mid 70s for highs), and by the weekend hopefully we’ll get some brightening, but much uncertainty remains, so I will clarify that section of the forecast in later reports.

Have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Patchy fog burns off, increasing clouds, highs reach well into the 70s
–Humidity increases and sticks around through the rest of the week
–Isolated to scattered showers with some downpours possible by late morning
Into the afternoon along and west of the CT River Valley, less so well east of I-91
–Can’t rule out a couple of thunderstorms, and they may be strong closer to the New York state line with southwest New England
–By sometime tonight, either around sunset or closer to midnight, a larger area of heavier rain and torrential downpours will push east into the Berkshires of MA and Litchfields of CT
–This starts the heaviest areas of rainfall during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
–It is tomorrow when areas like northeast CT, CMass and SWNH get more into the heavier rainfall vs. today/Tuesday
–Southeasterly wind gusts pick up late tonight into Wednesday to 30mph or so at times, maybe a bit more in the high terrain west of the CT River
–Street flooding is expected by tonight and certainly on Wednesday and Wednesday night when the heaviest rain moves through
–Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding possible with Flood Watches up, with best chance in the western hilltowns, northwest CT and parts of the Berkshires
–After lows tonight either side of 60º, highs Wednesday reach the upper 60s to mid 70s with a very wet day ahead
–Lows Wednesday night again either side of 60º with patchy fog
–Thursday and Friday should see the heaviest slug of rainfall east and away from the region, but upper low slowly moves thru
–This brings additional scattered areas of showers and downpours, some thunder possible, highs upper 60s to 70s
–We warm up by the weekend with a few showers possible Saturday, but hopefully high pressure will brighten things up by this time, but we take it one day at a time in this slow pattern

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:39am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:13am this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 34 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 8:01pm this evening
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Southeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 5:25am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Southwest
–MOON PHASE: *Full Buck Moon* (100.0% Illumination)