Good morning everybody, we’ve got a plethora of precipitation types to contend with today, a potpourri of precipitation as an NWS meteorologist recently called it, with snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain on the way.

The trends have been colder with this storm as there is some cold air damming draining into the region from the northeast (high pressure to our northeast keeps the cold “dammed” up again incoming mild air).

In addition, a secondary low is expected to form by mid afternoon to early evening south of Long Island, which will help draw colder back in from north to south at all levels, and may even keep the warm nose aloft from getting too far past the Pike if everything lines up.

Regardless of the fine details, generally speaking snow and sleet should break out across the region between 9am far northwest CT and the southern Berkshires through noon or 1pm in southwest NH, CMass, and northeast CT, and by late morning in the Pioneer Valley.

The steadiest precip falls roughly noon to 6pm, and it is by mid to later afternoon the more sleet, freezing rain and plain rain should mix be observed south of the Rt. 2 corridor, with mostly snow and sleet along and north of the Rt. 2 corridor, though some freezing rain may mix in spots.

After any burst of snow and sleet, the best chance for plain rain is in the valley from Hartford up to about Northampton and a good portion of northern CT until colder air arrives this evening. Highs will climb well into the 30s, and then drop into the 20s tonight.

Should the colder trend hold, areas north of the Pike could remain either snow, sleet or freezing rain.

By tonight, temps are going to drop and while there will be slick travel areas where winter precipitation is strongest during the day (southern VT, southwest NH, northern MA along and north of Rt. 2), a second burst of snow may develop mostly north of the MA/CT state line and track west to east between 9pm to 3am as it chases our departing and strengthening secondary low. Scattered snow showers will be possible with additional coatings into Saturday morning.

AMOUNTS
I am sticking with a coating to 3” of snow and sleet south of the Rt. 2 corridor with areas of ice accretion up to a tenth to two-tenths of an inch where freezing rain sets up. Along and north of Rt. 2 should see 3-6” of snow and sleet, with a pocket of 5-9” in southern VT over into northern Cheshire County NH.

OVERPERFORMANCE
Please note that if the colder air really develops and holds further south, that 3-6” line could push south down to around the level along and north of the MassPike (vs. along and north of Rt. 2), so that’s something to be aware of.

Snow totals are through noon on Saturday, and Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings continue through 10am on Saturday.

We’ll see drying activity Saturday afternoon with highs in the 35-40º range and a few snow or rain showers will be possible in the afternoon. A few more snow showers are possible Saturday night with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.

By Sunday, we’ll remain mostly cloudy, and I will be watching the next winter storm potential which is a coastal nor’easter that has been trending closer and closer to the New England coast on model guidance, and while I doubt it’s a major hit for the greater WMass region, it’s trending toward becoming a light to moderate snow and wind impact with several inches possible in some spots and wind gusts up to 40mph for Sunday night into Monday.

Temps are going to cool by Sunday into the low to mid 30s, and by Monday possible into the upper 20s as the storm pulls away, with more snow and rain possible by mid-week.

All this to say, we’re in a very busy late-winter pattern, so please stick with me, I will keep you updated!

Your Daily Nutshell and Celestials follow…

YOUR DAILY NUTSHELL:
–Snow and sleet arrives 9am to 1pm from southwest to northeast in the greater WMass region
–Snow and sleet should be primary precip type along and north of Rt. 2 corridor
–Change to or mix with plain rain or freezing rain with periods of sleet south of the Rt. 2 corridor by mid to late afternoon
–Change back to snow after about 8pm tonight, winding down in the pre-dawn hours
–This system has trended colder, so snow and sleet has potential to dominate precip type north of the Pike vs. north of the Rt. 2 corridor (cold may “hold court” further south than is likely to happen)
–Snow showers on Saturday taper by afternoon
–Coating to 3” south of Rt. 2 in WMass, CMass and northern CT, 3-6” along and north of there in northern MA, SVT and SWNH, with 5-9” jackpot in mountains of SVT and northern SWNH
–That 3-6” line may pull south toward the Pike if the cold holds stronger this afternoon
–Drying Saturday afternoon and night but a few snow or rain showers possible
–Clouds thicken Sunday, with more snow possible Sunday evening and night into early Monday if a coastal storm keeps trending closer to the coast
–Light to moderate impacts possible with northerly winds gusts to 40mph possible
–Drying Monday afternoon and Tuesday with more snow or rain possible by middle of next week
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YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:39am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 5:29pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 10 hours and 50 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON ROSE AT: 7:58am this morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 9:22pm tonight
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent (10.5%)