Good morning everybody, after yesterday’s bust (which from your feedback seemed to be quite welcome) I’m afraid to say there’s still more winter in the seasonal tank and our next mixed mess is in the queue for tomorrow and tomorrow night with snow showers lingering into Saturday. Beyond that, I am still monitoring late Sunday night into Monday which could become a major snowy and windy nor’easter for parts of southern New England. Is it Spring yet?

For this morning, our temps dropped below freezing rain and so black ice has formed in spots overnight but temps are forecast to rise up well into the 30s, so that will become a non-issue later this morning. Still, watch your surfaces when you’re out early, and then get ready for a peaceful late-winter day with highs well into the 30s under partial sunshine.

For tonight, lows will drop into the low to mid 20s and clouds will increase late as a warm front extending east from a primary low pressure system as that low pushes into the Great Lakes region to our west.

For Friday, we’ll be overcast in the morning and watch said warm front push what’s called overrunning precipitation (moist air hits cold air, and is forced to rise up and over it, condenses and produces precip) into the greater WMass region. It will be dry at first so may take until later morning for snow and sleet to reach the ground.

Once we get to about mid-day, it should be snowing and sleeting in most places (snow north, sleet south, or a mix of the two) and milder air will keep pushing overhead which should flip areas south of the Rt. 2 corridor to a mix of sleet, freezing rain and plain rain by mid to late afternoon, with snow and/or sleet along and north of Rt. 2.

It’s a mixed mess, and I’m not going to try and pretend that that precip types are pinpoint-able, but the bottom line is that by early evening we’ll be looking for as secondary low to form south of New England and start pulling colder air from north to south at all levels, flipping us back to sleet and snow and then all snow before it quits Friday night.

How fast will the low form? How close to the coast? How strong will it be? I don’t know the answers, but I do know that “faster/stronger” formation will pull snow in quicker vs. “slower/weaker” formation. I will watch trends today.

As the primary low dies out in the eastern Great Lakes Friday evening and the secondary low and starts to pull east and out to sea, a connection may be made between the two that may help produce periods of light to even moderate snow showers on Satureday, adding additional light snow accumulations.

All in all by Saturday night, I think we’ll see a coating to 3” from northern CT up through much of WMass and CMass, with 2-5” along and north of Rt. 2 in northern MA, SVT and SWNH.

Highs Saturday hang in the low to mid 30s with lows in the mid teens to low 20s.

Sunday starts off nice enough with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s with some partial sunshine, but clouds will increase late in the day and evening, and lows are expected to fall into the mid teens to mid 20s.

By that time, a powerful low pressure system will be forming off of the southern Mid-Atlantic coastline, aided by a potent upper trough swinging in from the Great Lakes region, inducing bombogenesis and the potential for a blizzard to be lurking nearby on early Monday morning.

It’s more likely than not that the phasing between this deepening low center and its upper trough happens too late to produce a major impact in the greater WMass region, but it cannot be ruled out at this stage.

If it were to hit, it would be a snowy, windy nor’easter that could put quite a capper on this Winter of 2025-26, but I will keep you updated on it and the trends as we move forward into the weekend. Fair weather arrives behind that system next week.

Have a great day, and your Nutshell and Daily Celestials follows!

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Black ice early dissipates into a lovely Thursday with partial sunshine and highs in the 30s to near 40º with a light wind
–Lows low to mid 20s as clouds increase
–Friday morning is overcast, with snow and sleet developing by mid to late morning
–Highs reach the upper 20s to mid 30s as a warm front pushes northeast into the region
–Snow and sleet push north, and mild air aloft changes areas south of Rt. 2 for a time to a mix of sleet, freezing rain, or even plain rain along and south of the Pike
–Secondary low forms south of New England, pulls colder air in, and changes us back to sleet and snow, eventually all snow
–Light accumulations south by Saturday morning, moderate accumulations along and north of Rt. 2
–Snow showers may linger Saturday as a trough connects the departing secondary low with the weakening primary low over the eastern Great Lakes
–Additional light accumulations are possible, highs Saturday in the low to mid 30s, with lows in the mid teens to low 20s
–Sunday is a mostly sunny and unseasonably cold day with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with lows in the teens as we look south
–It’s a low potential for now, but trends have been bringing a coastal nor’easter closer to the coast
–If this trend continues we could be dealing with a moderate to even major windy snowstorm on Monday
–Fair and cold weather follows into middle of next week
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YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:40am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 5:28pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 10 hours and 48 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON ROSE AT: 7:36am this morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 8:09pm this afternoon
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent (4.7%)