Dave's Daily Report

May 16, 2026

7:25 am

SPRING WARMTH ARRIVES TODAY, SUMMER WARMTH ARRIVES TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BIG HUMIDITY INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… SEVERE STORMS BY WEDNESDAY POSSIBLE...

Good morning folks, we’ve got some patchy fog out there in the Berkshires, and it is especially dense at Keene NH, Orange MA, and northeast CT. This will burn off as temps are coming UP today, landing well into the 70s under sunny skies as our new Spring regime moves in and kicks the old winter pattern to the curb (known as the coastline) and out to sea. #BuhBye

The Nutshell (above if on FB, below if on my iPhone app) goes through the upcoming 7 days of temperature details, but the bottom line is temps are going up for highs and lows over the next 5 days, and even when they sit back down for next Thursday and Friday they will still be 10 degrees above where they have been for weeks. #RightDirection

So, gorgeous today, highs well into the 70s, sunny, but we do have a weak wave coming through tonight with lows in the 50s. This weakening feature may drop a few light to moderate showers near/around midnight, but otherwise we’re dry until at least Tuesday afternoon, and more so through Wednesday afternoon when an actual cold front will sweep this second 2026 round of heat and humidity seaward.

Sunday is breezy out of the west with even warmer temps under sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, which will repeat on Monday, also with sunny skies. Lows Sunday night dip into the upper 40s to mid 50s, and then hang at either side of 60º Monday night as dewpoints and humidity increase into Tuesday and Wednesday.

It’s hazy, hot and humid Tuesday and Wednesday, with a legit summer feel (we’ll be less than 2 weeks away from June, so here comes Summah) with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day.

If things really come together, I can’t rule out some spots in the lower valley reaching the mid 90s.

I could also see some pre-frontal scattered showers and thunderstorms or downpours developing Tuesday afternoon, though the best chance of that is Wednesday afternoon with the actual cold front pushing into the region from NY state.

Some storms could become severe with strong wind or hail, but those details will emerge more clearly as we get closer.

The bottom line is we will NOT experience a third day above 90º for Thursday, so a heat wave is not in the cards this time around.

What IS in the cards, is a return to seasonable temps by Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s under partly sunny skies with no big rain in sight until early the following week.

Have a great day and enjoy our newfound warmth!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Patchy fog burns off in the Berkshires and areas east of the CT River Valley in NH, MA and CT this morning
–Full sunshine develops with highs well into the 70s today as Spring deepens
–Lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s with a spot shower possible overnight, especially west of I-91
–Sunday is warmer, and breezier, and sunny with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and west winds gusting to 20mph at times
–Lows will drop into the low to mid 50s
–We can expect similar highs to Sunday for Monday, in the upper 70s to mid 80s under sunny skies, lows in the upper 50s to low 60s as humidity steps up
–By Tuesday, humidity is increasing with dewpoints cresting well into the 60s, which will be the most humid air we’ve experienced in many months
–With high pressure cranking up to our southeast, and an upper ridge sliding up the eastern seaboard, highs will soar into the mid 80s to low 90s
–Some pre-frontal scattered showers and thunderstorms may form by late afternoon
–Lows will dip into the mid to upper 60s under partly cloudy skies
–By Wednesday, a strong cold front will be approaching the region from our northwest
–Heat and humidity will peak once more with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoint temps near 70º, but no heat wave will develop this time around
–A potential squall line of strong to even severe thunderstorms remain possible for later Wednesday afternoon with wind and hail possible
–Behind the front, lows will drop to either side of 50º
–Fair and cooler conditions advect into the region for late week with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s Thursday and Friday, some 10 degrees higher than recent highs, so things are going in the right warm season direction

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:28am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:05pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 37 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 8:30pm this afternoon
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Northwest
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 5:32am tomorrow morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: Northeast
–MOON PHASE: *NEW MOON* (0.4%)

A NOTE FROM OUR WEEKEND SPONSOR

  • Historic Deerfield

    Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Supported by Individual Community Members, and Sponsored by Historic Deerfield.

    Historic Deerfield is a mile-long museum of history, architecture, and art in Deerfield, MA. Including 12 historic houses, a modern museum facility, and a kids’ discovery center, Historic Deerfield is open 9:30am-4:30pm, Wednesdays-Sundays.

Go to Top