Good morning folks, we’re waking up to periods of showers and cool temps this morning, and that will continue through our Thursday thanks to what is likely to be the final upper low and trough over the northeast U.S. – an old atmospheric relic from a persistent and potent cold season that brought us our strongest winter in 11 years.

And boy does it feel cold-season-y out there today, no? Cool temps, overcast, rainy, and as such temps will hang mostly in the 50s today with a few spots hitting 60º.

Showers should increase in number and intensity by afternoon and into around dinner time, with a few downpours possible, especially along and east of the I-91 corridor.

It’s hard to know exactly where the heaviest rain bands will set up as our upper low moves overhead and helps to draw moisture from an offshore low back to the northwest and into the greater WMass region, but for now that appears to the Pioneer Valley and points east.

If it shifts east or west, you’ll know, and I will update later this afternoon.

This main, larger rain band associated with our upper and surface-based systems will begin to pivot from south-north, to southeast-northwest, and finally to east-west in its orientation like a classic old Nor’easter does.

As that happens, I think the heavier rain will first track east of WMass by late today, and then pivot north to around the Rt. 2 corridor, or even north of there by tonight where steadier rains may continue in far northern MA, SVT and especially SWNH.

Northern CT and possibly even parts of southwest MA in the Berkshires should see less rainfall overall compared to the CT River Valley points east where half an inch to 1.5” of rain could fall.

Again, highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s should do it for temps with lighter wind expected. While scattered lighter showers are expected at times overnight, it’s looking more like a drizzly, misty, damp night ahead.

Friday should see some scattered showers, with potential for steadier lighter rains north of Rt. 2 in the morning, but the S L O W trend will be for less rain with time, patchy drizzle, and cool overcast conditions with highs only in the 50s, and lows in the 40s as we dry out Friday night.

But despite all of this dreariness over the next 36-48 hours, we have a pattern change under way with a snap to deeper Spring and early Summer this weekend and through the middle of next week!

The upper level low will be escorted out of the building and booted seaward as an upper ridge starts to build in the east which will help transport much warmer and drier air into the region for Saturday through Monday.

If you’ve been dying for a gorgeous Spring weekend, here it comes!! Though I will say that allergy sufferers will need to prepare as sunshine abounds with highs in the 70s Saturday, and then reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s by Sunday with a spot shower possible to end the weekend. Lows will be in the 50s to near 60º by Sunday night.

Monday will produce another day with high temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s day with sunshine, after which we’ll see dewpoints soar into the 60s as humid conditions develop with highs in the 80s by Tuesday, and the mid 80s to low 90s by Wednesday! Some will be tempted to install the AC units!

If it were me, I might try and endure it as a cold front does look to set up between high pressure to our northwest and high pressure to our southeast (the one responsible for next week’s heat).

This will likely produce showers into the region by the second half of the week as the battle between cooler and drier and warmer and more humid air sets up over southern New England.

I will sort out the details as we get closer, but I do expect that we’ll be cooling down by later next week.

Have a great day and stay warm… pretty soon I’ll be telling you to stay cool!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Upper low swings overhead, a meteorological relic from our old persistent cold-season pattern
–Highs only reach the 50s today and on Friday, with lows in the 40s
–Periods of rain this morning give way to heavier rainfall at times this afternoon, especially along and east of the I-91 corridor in WMass on east into CMass, SWNH, NE.CT
–Heaviest / steadiest rain showers shift east of our region, then to a position along/north of Rt. 2 tonight
–Looking drizzly / misty overnight with pockets of lighter showers late
–This pivoting band of rain may introduce more showers into areas north of the Pike in MA, VT and NH Friday morning
–Then the storm pulls northeast and away, as does the upper low, with drying later Friday into Friday night
–The weekend represents a stark pattern-change snap into late Spring and early Summah with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s Saturday, and lows in the 50s under sunny skies
–Sunday should be warmer with highs in the low 70s to low 80s under partly sunny skies with a spot shower possible, lows in the 50s
–Monday thru Wednesday brings on early Summer conditions with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Monday, the 80s on Tuesday, and mid 80s to low 90s on Wednesday!
–Humidity will be increasing into Tuesday and Wednesday as well, so get ready for a Summah taste!
–A cold front swings through late Wednesday into Thursday with periods of showers and cooler temps for late week

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:30am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:03pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 33 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 5:46pm this afternoon
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 4:15am tomorrow morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent (8.2%)