Good morning folks, we’re entering a summery pattern through about Tuesday before the first of two cold fronts moves through our region next week (the second one potentially being the following Friday or Saturday). Things change in the Weather Department (thanks, Captain Obvious) but for now it does look like a mid-month pattern change to cooler temps and less humidity is becoming more likely. Until next Tuesday, though, we’re very warm to hot, very humid at times, and subject to classic afternoon instability showers and t-storms today, tomorrow and Saturday afternoon.

For today, we also have some scattered light to moderate showers tracking east-northeast in our moistening southwest flow pattern thanks to a broad upper trough over south-central Canada, and our upper Bermuda ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean.

We’re in the squeeze play between the two, and that moisture and warmth vacuum has prompted the hoisting of Heat Advisories by the National Weather Service for today and tomorrow throughout the Pioneer Valley of WMass and points east through CMass, and south in northern CT.

Showers will be hit or miss through the afternoon, with partly to mostly sunny periods in between cloudier periods, and assuming we get enough sunshine developing, temps will rise into the 85-90º range today, tomorrow and Saturday with lows either side of 70º.

In addition, dewpoints will hover in the upper 60s to mid 70s so it will be very humid (tropical at times, really), especially today and tonight.

This will create enough instability to interact with some disturbances passing into New England around the southeastern flank of our upper trough to pop showers, downpours and thunderstorms, scattered about the area in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Some storms could produce torrential rain, local areas of flooding, and strong gusty winds.

This is the pattern for the next 3 days, and Heat Advisories might be extended into Saturday if it persists.

By Sunday, we’ll see some more influence from the upper ridge before it starts to get bulldozed southeast and away / out to sea by an incoming storm and cold front by Tuesday.

This means our Sunday looks like the pick of the week with highs in the 80s, under mostly sunny skies, with lows either side of 60º. These conditions will hopefully extend into Monday for a nice kick-off to the next work week, prior to an increase in humidity and warmth on Tuesday ahead of our front.

Tuesday looks rainy at the moment, but timing is un-pinnable at this point. The bottom line is that a storm looks to pass to our north and drag a cold front through the region with showers and possible thunderstorms, with drier air moving by mid-week.

After that, a signal for a very strong mid-latitud cyclone passing into Maine and cranking up as it does so could bring wind and strong to severe thunderstorms by the end of next week, which could lead to a pattern change to more northwest flow with drier and cooler conditions, but may also open us up to western wildfire smoke, so lots to track in the coming 7-10 days!

I hope you have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR DAILY NUTSHELL(S)
THURSDAY:
–Scattered light to moderate showers into afternoon
–Partly sunny on average, with high humidity and high temps in the 80s to near 90º
–Assuming sunshine becomes more pervasive mid-day, heat indices push into the mid to upper 90s
–Scattered showers, downpours and thunderstorms possible this evening, especially south of the Rt. 2 corridor
–Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, very humid, patchy fog possible

FRIDAY:
–Similar day to Thursday, very humid, similar temps
–Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible
–Heat Advisories continue, lows either side of 70º

SATURDAY:
–Rinse and repeat, very humid, highs 80s to near 90º
–Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible
–Lows 65-70º, humid

SUNDAY:
–A bit drier, more sunshine, highs in the 80s
–Still humid, but potentially a bit less than these next few days
–Lows either side of 60º

MONDAY-TUESDAY:
–Rain-free conditions may extend into Monday
–Very warm with highs in the 80s
–Then humidity increases again ahead of a cold front
–Tuesday showers develop with highs in the 80s
–Cold front sweeps through and dries us out toward mid-week
–Temps come down a bit, as we await potential second cold front on Friday with severe weather possible, and a pattern change by the following weekend

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:48am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:03am this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 15 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 2:38pm this afternoon
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 11:49pm tonight
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent (45.9% Illumination)