Dave's Daily Report

May 15, 2026

7:21 am

SUMMAH’S COMIN': ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY COOL, DREARY DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS, THEN SUN AND WARMTH FOR DAYS… GORGEOUS SPRING WEEKEND AHEAD… HEAT AND HUMIDITY PEAK TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY

Good morning folks, today is our transition day out of the cold season and into the warm season of 2026. I’m not saying we can’t get a cool pattern again, I’m just saying that deeper Spring and Summer are taking a bigger step towards us at this point, so gear up, giddy up, and let’s go!

Our upper low sitting over us today and departing to the southeast will produce more clouds than sunshine, but sunny breaks are expected along with scattered showers by late morning into the afternoon, tracking from north to south as our system (and cold season pattern) pulls away to the east and out to sea.

Highs will only sit in the 50s today, and some patchy drizzle will be possible later on. By tonight, we should start to clear more, but patchy fog will likely set up in the valley in spots, with lows in the 40s.

Once we reach Saturday, Spring SPRINGS with sunshine developing amidst west-southwest flow and highs will climb into the upper 60s to upper 70s with lows in the 50s and breezy conditions.

West winds may gust up to 20mph or so by Sunday with even warmer highs reaching the mid 70s to mid 80s, but at least it will be dry humidity-wise. Lows will dip into the 50s.

Got plans this weekend? I couldn’t possible greenlight them more based on what I am saying. There’s a super low chance for a spot shower late Saturday night into Sunday morning, but I doubt it happens.

Then by the first half of next week, we’re going to see a potent upper ridge (the opposite of an upper trough) building northward up the eastern seaboard of the U.S. Ridges represent higher than average pressures aloft, and encourage sinking air, which is a drying air motion, and substantially warmer temperatures.

Highs on Monday will reach the 80s for most of us, and then we’ll see humidity increase ahead of a mid-week cold frontal passage.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, it is likely going to be full-on early summer with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s for both days, and dewpoints are likely to climb well into the 60s, so get your warm-season clothes ready!

By Wednesday, I will be watching the only real rain chance that I can see in the next 7-10 days at this point, which will be a cold front slicing into New England by Wednesday evening.

If this front arrives early enough into the peak heating of the day, it could take advantage of that heat, humidity, and instability and generate a line of strong thunderstorms and downpours to move through late in the day, but I will refine that as we get closer.

The bottom line is that behind that front late next week, temps should come back down to seasonable levels, not unseasonable levels like we’ve been experiencing recently (including today).

Highs late next week should be more in the upper 60s to mid/upper 70s range with increasing sunshine, which won’t be too tough to take for the old bones.

Have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Our final cold season upper low is overhead and pulling southeast today
–This brings mostly cloudy skies today with sunny breaks and cool highs in the 50s
–Much less rainfall today, but some hit-or-miss showers expected by late morning into the afternoon
–Patchy drizzle is also possible, with patchy fog tonight and lows in the 40s
–This weekend is completely different as west-southwest flow sets up behind the departing upper low
–Deeper Spring is literally pulled into the region like raising a window shade, it’s a whole new world outside!
–Highs reach the upper 60s to upper 70s for Saturday and then the mid 70s to mid 80s for highs on Sunday with mostly sunny skies
–Lows will be in the low to mid 50s over the weekend nights
–By Monday through Wednesday, more sunshine is expected as heat and humidity builds due to an upper ridge building up the east coast
–Highs Monday reach the upper 70s to mid 80s, and then climb into the mid 80s to low 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday
–Humidity increases by Tuesday into mid-week as well, so we should experience a full hot and humid summer feel before a cold front moves through by Wednesday PM
–Showers and thunderstorms will be likely with this front, but details will have to be ironed out
–By late next week we settle into the seasonable upper 60s to 70s for highs with fair weather expected, and little no rainfall

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:29am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:04pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 35 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 7:07pm this afternoon
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 4:49am tomorrow morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent (3.0%)

A NOTE FROM OUR WEEKDAY SPONSOR

  • Gerard, Ghazey & Bates, P.C.

    Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons, and Gerard, Ghazey & Bates, P.C.

    GGBPC is a Northampton-based law firm and is the area’s premier estate and tax planning provider. The firm specializes in Estate Planning, Elder Law, and Tax Law, so be sure to contact GGBPC today to see how they can help you.

    Simply click the following link to their secure website.

Go to Top