Good morning folks, we’ve got a potent cold front swinging east and into New England this afternoon, draped southward off of a powerful low pressure system that will drop below 980 millibars (mb) as it rips into Quebec Province which is quite strong for a land-based Canadian system with no ocean interaction.

Rainfall of varying intensity is already being drawn into and through parts of the greater WMass region this morning, and it’s heavy at times, and you’ll notice this today: it’s more of a warm season feel to the rainfall, with downpours expected and thunder possible.

Winds are already gusting up to 60mph in southwest VT, and near 50mph in the Berkshires with temps already in the mid 50s at elevation, whereas it is in the mid 30s in the CT River Valley!!

Warm air loves loves loves to ride up and over colder air already in place… it’s very hard to scour out cold air from the CT River Valley which at times can make it the Western Mass Wind Haters Triangle of Rejoicement when a cold season temperature inversion (colder air below, milder air above) sets up and keeps the wind aloft!

But alas, this cold air will likely be displaced by temps through the 40s and into the low to mid 50s by mid day, and if we get even a couple degrees milder than that, we could see gusts exceedindg 50mph in the valley, and up to 65mph in the Berkshires, western hilltowns and southern Greens in VT as the low level jet streak passes overhead.

All it takes is a rise of a couple of degrees and the valley could be approaching 60mph in isolated areas, so all this to say BE CAREFUL on the roads today with rain, heavy at times, and wind through early afternoon.

By about 2pm or 3pm our cold front will come through, and temps will start to drop behind it with a wind shift out of the west, and a cutoff of the heavy rain as the storm pulls away.

Behind the front, mixed rain and snow showers will develop, and a snow squall is possible with briefly heavy snow, especially in the Berkshires/hills, and these will track east by around dinner time and into the first part of the evening.

Black ice is possible as temps crash to and below freezing, and light accumulations of a coating to 2” are expected in the Berkshires, western hilltowns, SVT with some scattere coatings in the rest of WMass, CMass and northern CT with lows crashing into the low to mid 20s.

Wind chills will also crash into the single digits to teens as westerlies gust 35-55mph tonight, probably peaking around midnight, so a blustery day and night is on the way as High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories continue.

The weekend looks nicer with more sunshine, and westerly wind gusts of 20-30mph, so while the wind comes down, it doesn’t totally go away. Highs will reach the mid to upper 30s Saturday and upper 30s to low 40s by Sunday with Saturday night lows in the mid to upper 20s, and then the mid to upper teens Sunday night behind another cold front.

This will set up a blustery day Monday with blustery conditions continuing and highs only in the 20s to low 30s.

A very cold Monday night will set us up for an overrunning event as a Clipper low passes to our north but pushes a warm front at us Tuesday, which will produce light accumulating snow, possibly a 1-3” type snowfall with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Milder temps arrive for XMas Eve Day and XMas Day (a/k/a Wednesday and Thursday for those who don’t celebrate) with highs roughly in the 35-40º range both days and sunshine Wed., and possibly a few showers Thursday with more inclement activity late week possible.

Have a great day, hold on to your hats, don the galoshes, 10 and 2 on the wheel, and stop drop and roll! (forget that last one).

I will update later as warranted, Dave.

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell