Good morning folks, big changes are on the way after our multi-day stretch of gorgeous, dry, sunny and calm weather conditions as we push towards August and the middle of the Summer of 2026. Today will be our transition day with a few showers or a thunderstorm possible later (especially in the western hills/mountains of MA or VT), followed by periods of heavy rainfall beginning Tuesday afternoon and evening, but peaking during the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe, so let’s dive in.

For today, we enjoy one last low-humidity day with dewpoints in the 50s, warm highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s or so, and mostly sunny skies, especially this morning and into the first part of the afternoon. Beyond that, we do have a weak disturbance that will get out ahead of an incoming storm system, and that may touch off a few widely-scattered, slow-moving showers or a thunderstorm.

This activity for Monday later afternoon and evening will be mostly “hinged” to the high terrain west of I-91 in SVT, WMass, and northwest CT, and very slow-moving, so a couple of isolated areas could see good bit of rainfall later.

This activity will die down overnight, with lows dipping down to either side of 60º, as humidity starts to creep up by Tuesday morning.

As our upper trough swings east toward the Northeast U.S. and a primary surface low develops under it and pushes into western NY/PA, this will produce a vacuum of southerly flow to the east sides of these features, which points to New England for an increase in moisture at all levels of the atmosphere.

This means humidity is going UP, with dewpoints rising well into the 60s, with clouds also increasing. Highs will push well into the 70s to low 80s, and we’ll see some areas of showers develop by Tuesday afternoon.

These will also be slow-moving, but these will also carry more moisture with them, so downpours or a couple of thunderstorms are more likely by Tuesday afternoon and evening, and hence the chance for areas of street flooding and a wet Tuesday, especially in high-terrain areas of west of I-91 by Tuesday evening.

A secondary low pressure system will try to develop near the NYC metro area generally by Tuesday night into Wednesday, underneath the upper low which would “vertically-stack” low pressure from surface to sky as lows hang in the low to mid 60s

This will create a very strong upward/rising motion, and likely periods of very heavy rain, downpours with some thunder increasing by Wednesday morning and lasting into Thursday, at least through the morning if not the afternoon as well.

Given that we should be seeing a surface low pressure system to our *south*, we won’t see a severe t-storm threat but instead it will produce more of a flash flooding / street flooding threat with stratiform rainfall and periods of torrential rain given copious moisture at all levels mixed with strong rising air – it’s a recipe that may produce areas that see 2-5” of rainfall by Thursday.

That’s the thing that’s notable with this storm: it’s likely to feature a primary low heading into NY, weakening, and then transferring energy to a secondary low south of New England with that second low tracking east along the south coast.

That will be happening with much colder air aloft, and warmer humid air at the surface, which will produce prodigious atmospheric lift, and hence a bunch of rainfall for our region, which should lower the existing moderate drought in parts of the region by late week.

It’ll be cool Wednesday and Thursday, too, with highs only in the mid 60s to mid 70s both days and lows near 60º, prior to this storm kicking out of here by Thursday night into Friday.

Friday and Saturday look more like fair weather days behind this system with highs rebounding into the 70s to low 80s, before we get another chance at a front moving thru Sunday with showers and thunderstorms possible.

I will update again later this afternoon on our incoming heavy rain potential with flash flooding concerns, and don’t be surprised if a Flood Watch is posted by the NWS later today or by tomorrow morning for some greater WMass regional counties.

Have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Today / Monday is our transition day into inclement weather this week, with more needed-rainfall by end of the week
–Highs reach the upper 70s to mid 80s, with perhaps a few upper 80s in the southern valley by later afternoon
–Mostly sunny through much of the day, but upper trough starts creeping east
–A weak disturbance combines with the trough to pop a few slow-moving showers, downpours or t-storms, but many of us stay dry
–Humidity is comfortable today, with lows tonight down to either side of 60º
–Clouds increase Tuesday as our primary low swings into New York state, with showers and possible downpours by Tuesday afternoon, especially in the Berkshires and northwest CT
–Areas further east of I-91 should see less shower activity
–Highs climb generally into the 70s, to perhaps low 80s for some southern valley locations
–Tuesday night features lows low to mid 60s, higher humidity, and periods of rain, heavy at times with street flooding possible west of I-91
–Wednesday into Thursday contains the bulk of stormy impacts as our secondary surface low passes along the southern New England coast while the upper low tracks into the northeast U.S.
–This provides deep lift, plenty of moisture draw, and heavy rain at times, with instances of flash flooding probable, along with street flooding, and thunderstorm potential during this period
–Prepare for a wet Wednesday and Thursday, at least into Thursday mid-day before our storm system starts to wind down
–Highs only reach the mid 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday and Thursday
–Sunshine returns Friday into next weekend with more showers and storms possible by Sunday and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:38am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:14am this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 36 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 7:27pm this evening
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: Southeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 4:20am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Southwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Gibbous (95.6% Illumination)