Good morning folks, we’re getting socked into the clouds as the morning wears on with a warm front already on the way with temps starting out in the 50s to low 60s. Humidity will be coming up, and first showers with some downpours or a thunderstorm will arrive first in northwest CT, the Berkshires, and southwest VT by mid to later morning, so don the galoshes if you’re in those areas as the rest of us set up for wetter afternoon with several hazards possible, so let’s jump in.

We’ve got strong low pressure tracking east through southern Quebec today within and under an upper level trough that is sweeping east up in that area as well, which will produce plenty of lift over New England and draw plenty of moisture northward through our region later today and overnight.

A warm front will first work through the region late morning and afternoon and push scattered areas of showers, downpours and a few embedded thunderstorms into the greater WMass region. This will pull more humid air into the region with dewpoints near 70º by this afternoon and evening, and that warm moist air will extend skyward.

This will allow for downpours to form and drench some areas with highs reaching through the 70s to near 80º for some with southerly wind gusts of 15-30mph at times.

By late afternoon and early this evening, the cold front will be approaching and acting on this rich moisture, and should help to produce more downpours, as well as a couple-three strong thunderstorms which may become severe, especially in the Berkshires or western CT.

In fact, we may see a bow echo form, which could produce some localized damaging wind gusts, and I can’t rule out a quick spin-up either (the best chance for that being in western CT up into far southwest MA).

Street flooding is likely in spots, but I also can’t rule out an isolated instance or two of flash flooding if downpours or storms can train over the same areas this evening.

Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s as any strong/severe weather ends around or just after midnight.

For Wednesday, if we can get some clearing to develop to heat the surface enough, we’ll likely see another line of showers, downpours and thunderstorms by mid or late afternoon tracking from west to east.

If clouds hang tough, some showers and a few downpours would still be expected but the stronger weather would hopefully be tamped down.

Highs Wednesday reach the mid 70s to mid 80s with drier air spilling into our region as lows plummet into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

After that, we arrive into a huge sprawling area of high pressure exiting eastward from the Great Lakes, and producing sunny skies for Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 70s Thursday, and then the 70s to low/mid 80s Friday through Sunday, with lows in the 50s. Monday could feature a few showers, but should also be mostly dry.

Have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Strong low pressure sweeps east through Quebec today and tonight, strengthened by an upper trough
–This helps induce southerly gusts to kick up to 15-30mph at times today
–Highs reach well through the 70s today, with some 80º high temps
–Mostly cloudy skies will dominate with a few sunny breaks possible, then clouds thicken in the afternoon
–Humidity increases, and areas of showers and downpours with some thunder embedded develop by mid to later morning, especially west of I-91
–These will spread northeast during the afternoon with periods of rain, and periods of dry weather, trending wetter as the afternoon wears on
–This first round is the warm front bringing higher humidity for our Tuesday
–The second round of showers, downpours and t-storms arrives any time after 5pm or 6pm and into the early pre-dawn hours
–This is the first of two cold fronts over the next 2 days, and this evening’s front has potential to to deliver very heavy rain to produce areas of street flooding, and even isolated flash flooding instances
–Also, two or three thunderstorms may become strong to severe and produce localized wind damage or even a quick spin-up (best chance of that is western CT and far southwest MA, i.e. southern Berkshires into western Hampden County)
–Lows tonight dip into the low to mid 60s
–On Wednesday, if we can get clearing to develop fast and deep enough, a second round of stronger downpours and thunderstorms are possible by mid to late afternoon
–Highs will reach the mid 70s to mid 80s Wednesday with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s with much drier air working into our region
–Thursday through Sunday will feature high pressure exiting the Great Lakes and moving into (and eventually south of) New England by the weekend
–This means days of sunshine with dry weather with highs in the 70s Thursday (lows in the 50s), followed by highs in the mid 70s to low/mid 80s Friday through Sunday
–A few showers are possible by next Monday with continued seasonably warm temps

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:33am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 8:20am this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 47 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 1:48pm this afternoon
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Southeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 11:53pm this evening
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Southwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Gibbous (50.1% Illumination)