Good morning folks, it’s a chilly start which is partially a testament to the power of conduction whereby existing snow pack influences the air mass above by acting as a fridge (which is part of why we were so cold this December, due to widespread conduction of the Siberian and northern Canadian early snowpack and that colder-modified air’s direction into New England).

Regardless, we’ll “milden up” later today with strong high pressure to our southeast and a powerful cold front way west destined to sweep our region Friday around mid-day. Those two features are producing a strong southerly siphon the length of the Gulf to the Great Lakes.

For today, this will draw our high temps into the 40s under mostly sunny skies, but clouds will build late in the day, though temps will at first fall with sunset and the early evening.

However, by about 9pm or so, they should level off and then start rising into or toward midnight and through the pre-dawn hours, reaching the low 50s by early Friday morning, and possibly the mid to upper 50s by mid to late Friday morning when the heaviest rainfall moves into our region.

First showers will arrive toward midnight tonight, and southerly gusts will pick up later this evening reaching gusts of 20-35mph by midnight into the early pre-dawn hours.

Then wind speeds should increase as temps come up, and how much they come up will be everything in terms of what level of wind mixes to the ground.

I should mention that thunder is also possible, and if the inversion is still in place when it moves through, it will be LOUD (sound would be unable to dissipate skyward), so that’s something to be aware of.

For now, I am going with southerly wind gusts of 30-50mph by mid to late Friday morning, but if the temps really come up into the mid to upper 50s, gusts could spike into the 40-65mph range with some pockets of wind damage and outages by noon or early afternoon.

The cold front swings through, and temps will start crashing as the main band of showers pushes east by early afternoon. Right behind this front will be sharply dropping temps back into the 30s by mid to late afternoon, along with scattered snow showers and snow squalls capable of lowering visibility and providing some fresh coatings of wet snow in the Berkshires or western hilltowns.

Westerly winds will also pick and gust 30-45mph, and then should spike at night into the 35-55mph range as a small low level jet streak works through overhead, as low surface temps drop into the teens to mid 20s with a few more lake effect snow showers.

As temps drop into Friday afternoon and night, watch out for patches of black ice as any standing water from rainfall may freeze if the wind doesn’t evaporate it first.

The weekend is calmer, though still breezy with highs in the 30s on Saturday, and then in the low to mid 40s on Sunday after an overnight wave brings a few snow showers.

A cold front moves through early Monday and drops our high temps into the upper teens to upper 20s Monday, and then the upper 20s to mid 30s on Tuesday. We have a persistent signal showing potential for accumulating snow on Tuesday with a Clipper system, and if that happened that could be enough to produce a white XMas for those pining for that outcome.

Our weather looks calmer for next Wednesday and on XMas Day / Thursday, but another winter storm is possible by Friday, so we’re in a busy pattern and I will keep you updated the whole way.

Have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell