Good morning folks, temps are quite mild this morning in the 50s and 60s with showers departing CMass and northeast CT as colder air works in aloft, which is slowly starting to destabilize the atmosphere.

Aside from producing a mix of sun and clouds, what that means is that given our temps at the surface are forecast to rise into the mid 60s to mid 70s today along with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s (pretty humid for this time of year), as air higher in the sky becomes colder with time, that vertical temperature profile will make our surface air buoyant.

That means that it will rise, and given plenty of low level moisture in place, showers and thunderstorms will pop by about noon through the afternoon.

I don’t think these will become strong or severe, but they could drop some small hail in spots and produce heavy rainfall as they track north to south behind a departing low pressure area east of Cape Cod.

This activity should wind down by around dinner time, and lows should bottom out in the mid to upper 40s under partly cloudy skies.

Saturday is for sure the weekend pick with partly sunny skies on average expected with cooler highs only reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s with dry conditions expected. Lows will drop into the 40s.

Clouds will increase Saturday evening as a strong cold front approaches our region from the west, swept eastward by an upper trough that will settle over us by early next week delivering colder temperatures.

Our first showers will arrive around or after midnight and rain will become pretty steady I believe into the early morning period as the cold front moves into the region.

Some thunder is possible, but again no severe weather is expected. Temps will be peaking in the morning, somewhere in the 50s and then falling back into the 30s and 40s by afternoon.

I would expect a rainy Sunday morning, and there’s a chance showers will continue well into the afternoon as temps go down and wind picks up thanks to a secondary low forming with the front and amplifying things a bit.

This also has the potential to produce a mix with or change to wet snow in the Berkshires, western hilltowns and SVT where some coatings of snow may form on grassy surfaces generally above 1500 feet in elevation.

Northwest winds will gust to 30mph and temps will dive into the upper 20s to low 30s for lows Sunday night with a few snow showers possible.

Monday looks blustery and cold with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s under a mix of sun and clouds, probably trending mostly cloudy as the upper low moves over head and encourages rising air with a few scattered mixed showers possible by afternoon. That activity dies down and temps plunge well down into the 20s region-wide Monday night.

Tuesday looks lovely and more seasonable with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s with sunny skies, and then another weak system will pass to our north by Wednesday, which should push a few showers into the region with milder temps for mid to late week.

Highs during that period should reach the mid 50s to perhaps mid 60s before another cold front brings a return to cooler temps by next weekend the way it looks now.

Have a great day!

“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell

YOUR NUTSHELL:
–Showers in CMass and northeast CT depart, with a few lighter showers dropping south into SVT early, clearing in WMass
–Temps already in the 50s and 60s come up about 10 degrees with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
–Colder air moves overhead, destabilizes the atmosphere, and pops scattered showers and thunderstorms by noon into the afternoon, tracking north to south
–Small hail is possible in some of these cells
–Activity dissipates by dinner time, lows in the mid to upper 40s under partly cloudy skies
–Saturday is the weekend pick with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s
–Clouds increase in the evening with lows in the mid to upper 40s, with first showers moving in after midnight
–A strong cold front presses east into our region Sunday morning with widespread rainfall developing
–Embedded thunder is also possible, and rain may be heavy at times
–As we get towards late morning, snow may mix in or changeover in the high terrain of the Berkshires and SVT
–Can’t rule out some grassy wet snow coatings in those areas, but no real impacts expected
–Temps will be dropping from the 50s late morning into the 30s and 40s later in the afternoon with northwest winds gusting to 30mph at times
–Lows at night behind the front drop to upper 20s to low 30s
–Monday features cold temps with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and a few mixed rain or snow showers with a passing upper trough
–Lows Monday night crash into the 20s for all of us, hard freeze
–Tuesday is mostly sunny, highs upper 40s to mid 50s, followed by a few Wednesday showers with milder temps
–Highs reach the mid 50s to low 60s during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe

YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:06am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 7:33pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 13 hours and 27 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 8:15pm this afternoon
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 6:19am tomorrow morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent (0.2%)