STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY BETWEEN 2PM-7PM FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION… LOCALIZED DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS, TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS… LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO IS A LOWER THREAT, BUT ALSO POSSIBLE… DRIER AIR ARRIVES TOMORROW…. (6:55am Wed, 9/4/19)

Good morning everybody, we all know that much cooler and drier air is arriving late tonight, tomorrow and through the weekend, with a possible period of showers from Dorian’s passage to our southeast Friday and Friday night. I will go into details on the Thursday-Weekend period tomorrow. This report will focus on the severe weather threat in front of us today.

SUMMARY
–We are starting off in the low to mid 60s with dewpoints starting to creep upward
–Dewpoint temps will rise well into the 60s to low 70s for a very muggy day on tap
–A cold front will be approaching the region, draped southwestward off of a Quebec low center racing ENE and away from northern New England
–A strong southwesterly mid level flow will push into hte region today
–At the same time, southerly wind gusts will reach the 25-30mph range at times
–This will cause turning of the wind in the lower levels, a/k/a wind shear
–In addition, speed wind shear (a/k/a the change in wind speed from surface to sky) will become strong this afternoon
–With partly sunny skies developing and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, instability will develop across the region this afternoon
–Given all of these factors (wind shear, instability, moisture, atmospheric lift/forcing due to the cold front), we have an increased threat for severe weather as compared to how it looked yesterday
–Super cells are possible, as well as a squall line, and scattered showers, downpours, and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, shoulid move through between 2-7pm, with earliest impacts in SVT and the northern Taconics and Berkshires, and later impacts in northeast CT, eastern Hampden County and CMass
–Localized damaging straight line thunderstorm winds and torrential rain are the main threats, but we cannot rule out large hail or a tornado or two given this setup
–All of this activity dissipates by tonight as colder and drier air rushes in, and hopefully the drier air at the mid levels moves in faster and chokes off any major updrafts that form in these thunderstorms today
–That could be the piece that tamps down the severe threat
–Please stay tuned to this page today. As always, don’t wait for notifications from my page, or for my posts to show in your newsfeed… just bookmark the page on active days and visit every now and again, I will be here posting and keeping you updated on the latest weather developments

Have a great day and stay tuned and keep an eye to the west!