[ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES WITH RAIN PRESSING INTO NORTHERN CT AT 5PM… ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS PILE UP TONIGHT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EVEN SOUTH DOWN INTO THE NORTHAMPTON/AMHERST AREA, WITH LESS ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL OF NORTHERN CT… 5:30PM MONDAY]
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Good afternoon everybody, well it sure is pretty outside! That was quite the snow burst, looks like it dropped healthy coatings up to 2″ or possibly 3″ in spots.
Snow continues in WMass, CMass, southern VT and southwest NH in varying intensities as of this writing.
You can see our low pressure center responsible for today’s snow is offshore and will now track northeast toward a position south of Nantucket Island later tonight, and will continue to spread precipitation in the form of snow and rain (with maybe some sleet mixed in at times) through the region late this afternoon and this evening.
The next graphic shows the rain/snow line (which may have changed a bit by the time I post this report), and puts it very near the MA/CT border, with rain or mixed rain/snow south and snow north, generally speaking.
This line will slowly make northward progress, but really push farther north deeper into WMass by about 7-9pm or so. The snow could mix with rain as far north as the Rt. 2 corridor in WMass (except for higher elevation areas), but there is some indication that it may stay mostly snow as far south as Northampton/Amherst in the central Pioneer Valley.
I will post the snow amounts from this morning at the bottom of this post, with any adjustments noted. Current temps are attached.
The power outage potential is greatest in the breezier areas of northeast Berkshires, northwestern hilltowns, the spine of the southern Green Mountains, and portions of eastern Cheshire County (the Monadnock Region) and northwestern Worcester County (wind gust map attached).
Any snow, sleet or rain will be generally north and east of the MA Pike corridor by midnight, but precip may flip back to snow and linger into the pre-dawn hours north of the Pike, and quit by dawn.
Please post your pretty pics, your vids, your measured snow totals, conditions, etc. below, and please remember that I very much want to continue to pump out these reports for you every day, and especially during stormy times, but I need your help tonight, as my 2020 Member/Support Drive ends at Midnight.
I am only about 140 kind patrons away from reaching my goal of 4% of my fans (that is 1 out of 25 people) contributing ANY amount (small or large, monthly or annually) that works for you, if you currently able to (I know some just aren’t, and I’m grateful that you’re here).
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SNOW TOTALS (UPDATED AT 5:30PM)
At this point, southern Litchfield County of northwest CT, north-central and northeast CT on east into southern Worcester County should generally see a coating to 3″ of snow with a change to rain the further south you go, with a rain-snow mix the further north you go up to the Rt. 9 corridor.
2-4″ is possible in northwest Hartford County and portions of Tolland County in CT.
I think the central and eastern portions of Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties into northern Worcester County should end up with 3-6″ of snow, with some 6″+ amounts in Worcester County north of Rt. 2.
I also expect that same range of totals in the high terrain of northern Litchfield County, and into southern Berkshire County and the western hilltowns in Hampden County, and in the southern and central Taconics of eastern NY.
Southwest Berkshires in the river valley may only see up to 3″ with some rain mixed in at times, and/or sleet, and that could be the case for adjacent NW Litchfield County valley areas.
In the Winter Storm Warned regions above 1000 feet in the Berkshires, the northern Taconics, the northwestern hilltowns of WMass (western Hampshire and western Franklin), Worcester County north of Rt. 2 , southern VT and southwest NH, a widespread 5-8″ of snow should accumulate, with some 8″+ amounts in these areas, especially the southern Green Mountains and perhaps northwest Franklin and northeast Berkshire Counties there there’s still a shot at 10″ or more.
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[WINTER STORM WARNINGS NOW POSTED FOR CHESHIRE COUNTY NH, SOUTHERN VT, BERKSHIRE COUNTY, THE WESTERN HILLTOWNS, AND NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES NOW POSTED FOR NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL&EASTERN FRANKLIN, HAMPSHIRE AND HAMPDEN COUNTIES, AND SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY.. AFTER BRIEF SUNNY BREAKS, SNOW AND RAIN ARRIVE BY MID-AFTERNOON OR SO…. ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWSTORM ON THE WAY WITH SNOW AND RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS… PLEASE POST YOUR CONDITION REPORTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PICS, AMOUNTS, CONDITIONS…
MY 2020 SUPPORT DRIVE ENDS TONIGHT AND I’M JUST ABOUT 200 PATRONS FROM REACHING MY GOAL, I’D BE SO GRATEFUL IF YOU’D CONTRIBUTE ANY SMALL MONTHLY OR ONE TIME AMOUNT TO HELP SUSTAIN THIS RESOURCE INTO THE FUTURE BY CLICKING BELOW, AND THANK YOU… 8:25AM MONDAY]
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Good morning everybody, these late-season elevation-dependent snowstorms are complex and hard to nail down in terms of who sees how much snow, but I will attempt to do my best to lay things out for you.
To start, we’re already milder than expected, with temps at 7am having risen into the upper 20s to low 30s for many of us, with mid 20s in the northeastern Berkshires, western hilltowns, southern VT, southwest NH and northern Worcester County.
In a nutshell, those are the areas that will see generally 5-10″ of wet snow later today and tonight, with some isolated outages expected due to heavy wet snow taking down some tree limbs and power lines.
Backing up, when looking at the difference between the air temps and dewpoint temps (a/k/a the “dewpoint depression”), many of those are over 10 degrees apart, which means we have dry air in place at the surface.
We’ve had precip falling overhead already this morning, but it has been evaporating before reaching the ground. A few scattered flurries or snow showers may pass through, but the main bulk of the action arrives by early/mid afternoon to the west.
A few sunny breaks have been working through the region, but those will be short-lived as a northern stream system swings east-northeast through the Great Lakes, and pulls and pivots a Carolina/Virginia surface low northeast then east-northeast, causing it to track south of Cape Cod and the Islands tonight as it strengthens.
With southeast flow thanks to high pressure to our east, temps should warm up into the mid to upper 30s this afternoon before precip arrives between 2-4pm from west to east.
Precip may start as rain in many low-elevation places like the central and lower Pioneer Valley (Northampton-Amherst on south into Springfield metro), northern CT, southern Worcester County, and even the Housatonic River Valley in southwestern Berkshires County extending south down into western Litchfield County CT.
Elsewhere, snow (possibly mixed with some sleet) should fall in the eastern and northern Berkshires, western hilltowns, along and north of Rt. 2 in WMass, SVT and SWNH, and roughly the northern half of Worcester County, including anywhere at elevations of around 1000 feet or higher.
By early evening, we should see a flip to snow due to what’s called “dynamic cooling” where heavier precip rates can pull colder air from aloft down to the surface, either retaining snow as the precip type or changing rain/ice to snow.
This process should get the snow line south to either the Rt. 9 corridor in WMass/CMass, or down to the MA Pike.
South of the Pike, and certainly south of the MA/CT line we should see rain or rain mixed with snow tonight for a time, before changing to all snow late at night, prior to the storm quitting the region and exiting to the east.
That late afternoon to early/mid evening period (5-10pm) could produce 1″ per hour snowfall rates in the western hills, Berkshires, Rt. 2 corridor in WMass and CMass and SVT/SWNH, again where heaviest snow should fall.
Driving in the high elevation areas above 1000 feet will become slippery tonight and visibility will be reduced in heavy snow at times.
SNOW TOTALS
At this point, central and eastern portions of Hampshire and Hampden Counties, including southern Litchfield County of northwest CT, north-central and northeast CT and east into southern Worcester County I think we should generally see a coating to 3″ of snow with a change to rain the further south you go, with a rain-snow mix the further north you go up to the Rt. 9 corridor. A few 3″+ amounts are possible in these areas, especially northwest Hartford County and portions of Tolland County in CT.
I think the central and eastern portions of Franklin County into northern Worcester County should see more like 3-6″ of snow, with some 6″+ amounts in Worcester County north of Rt. 2.
I also expect that same range of totals in the high terrain of northern Litchfield County, and into southern Berkshire County and the western hilltowns in Hampden County, and in the southern and central Taconics of eastern NY.
Southwest Berkshires in the river valley may only see up to 3″ with some rain mixed in at times, and/or sleet, and that could be the case for adjacent NW Litchfield County valley areas.
In the Winter Storm Warned regions above 1000 feet in the Berkshires, the northern Taconics, the northwestern hilltowns of WMass (western Hampshire and western Franklin), Worcester County north of Rt. 2 , southern VT and southwest NH, a widespread 5-8″ of snow should accumulate, with some 8″+ amounts in these areas, especially the southern Green Mountains and perhaps northwest Franklin and northeast Berkshire Counties there there’s still a shot at 10″ or more.
Snow and rain should quit after midnight in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday with lows near the freezing mark.
We’ll start melting the snow tomorrow with highs in the 40s to near 50 degrees and lows in the 30s with clouds increasing yet again.
Once we’re through this, I will go into detail tomorrow morning about Wednesday’s storm system, which looks to bring more wet snow to some of the same areas as tonight’s storm will, though temps will be milder overall.
Again, please post your reports of amounts, intensity, precip type, conditions, temps, etc. to this local weather hive today and tonight, and I will keep you updated, with another update by early afternoon or so.
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CLICK TO HELP SUSTAIN YOUR COMMUNITY WEATHER RESOURCE… 2020 DRIVE ENDS MONDAY NIGHT(Cards, PayPal, Venmo, Check)
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