WIND ADVISORIES AND FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE WMASS REGION INCLUDING NORTHERN CT, EASTERN NY, SOUTHERN VT, SOUTHWEST NH AND CENTRAL MASS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING… AT 5:55PM MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION… HEAVY RAIN, POSSIBLE STREET FLOODING, AND LOCALIZED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED, FIRST OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT, THEN OUT OF THE WEST TOMORROW MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED OUTAGES… THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST CT/SOUTHERN CMASS AND POINTS SOUTHEAST… WEAK TORNADO POSSIBLE.. SNOW AND LIGHT ACCUMS STILL POSSIBLE ABOVE 2000 FEET THURS. AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN SVT AND WMASS…

Good evening everybody, our secondary coastal low is deepening rapidly now as expected (see attached map) and is set to lift out over the coastal waters of the western Atlantic Ocean, and will then track NNE somewhere into central and eastern MA, and then NH and ME overnight (see attached graphic).

Our parent low is still hanging back over the eastern Great Lakes region and slowly tracking east while our secondary/coastal low develops along the front draped SSE off of the parent low, creating a negative tilt between both systems. This storm will track NNE faster than the parent low will track east.

Because of this speed difference, the parent low will swing the bombing low (“bombing lows” refer to rapidly developing coastal lows) and its associated heavy rain and wind energy north-northeast directly into southern New England over night.

Lows will drop into the mid 40s tonight and patchy fog is possible.

Dry air will punch through the region before dawn tomorrow, with wraparound rainfall reaching southwest back into our neck of the woods.

I am unsure how far southwest these morning rains get. They may set up north of the Pike, or they may set up north of the Rt. 2 corridor.

Either way, I think SVT, SWNH, and WMass north of Rt. 2 will at the very least see additional rain from this storm before we get under the influence of the scattered instability showers from the incoming mid-level parent low tomorrow late morning, through the afternoon, and into the first part of Thursday night.

RAIN AMOUNTS
I still think we see 1.5-4″ of rainfall by tomorrow night, with the highest amount in the higher terrain (especially the western hilltowns and Berkshires up into the southern Greens), and some higher amounts than 4″ are possible in isolated spots.

WIND GUSTS
I think we should still see gusts of 30-50mph out of a generally easterly direction after 9 or 10pm tonight and lasting into the pre-dawn hours, but slackening before dawn.

There may be a lull at this low runs right through Massachusetts, with a wind shift out of the west just before, around, or after dawn.

There is a low chance that winds could gust even higher than 50mph along or east of I-91 as the low approaches. Winds could gust 45-70mph in CMass and EMass with highest gusts along the coast.

Damage from the wind is possible in spots (not everyone will see damage) with leaves still on the trees acting as a sail until they’re blown off, so some outages are possible.

STREET FLOODING
As the leaves are blown off, enough rainfall will be occurring that along with some clogged drains, we could see multiple areas of street flooding, so please be careful if you are out and about tonight.

Visibility will be low in heavy rain, patchy fog, and if a burst of wind moves through and causes even worse visibility with a combination of flying leaves and heavy rain, you can see what I’m getting at here – visibility could be an issue, and if that happens, remain calm and gradually but steadily slow down, while being mindful of traffic around you, if you can negotiate your vehicle in such a way. Use your common sense.

Furthermore, when coupled with hard-to-see puddles and street flooding, it’s not a great night or pre-dawn time for driving, so if you have to go out, PAY ATTENTION AND BE ALERT, PLEASE.

Uncle Dave has spoken. :-)

Again, for tomorrow, along and south of the PIke the rain should shut off, barring a few scattered showers.

Rain may continue for the early morning either north of the Pike, or north of Rt. 2, not really sure yet where that southwestern rain band sets up as the storm pulls northeast and away.

Northwest winds will start to blow during the morning and into the afternoon, with wind gusts of 25-45mph, with isolated to scattered showers, and highs in the upper 40s to low 50s with temps dropping as the day wears on and as colder air gets wrapped into the region.

SNOW IN THE HIGH PEAKS THURSDAY PM
As we enter the afternoon, colder air will continue to funnel into the region aloft, and as you can see on attached short-range guidance, temps should go below freezing about a mile up, and get close to freezing about half a mile up.

It’s reasonable to interpret that if rain showers are heavy enough tomorrow, the rain could mix with or change to snow in the high terrain of WMass, eastern NY, southern VT and southwest NH at elevations of around 2500 feet and above.

A coating to an inch or so is possible in the highest peaks by tomorrow night.

I think this about covers it!

Please feel free to post any weather condition reports (rain, wind, thunder, outages, etc) below this post tonight, let your friends know about this update, and I expect I will post again later tonight and provide an update, so stay tuned, stay dry, and be safe.

Thanks as always for reading and for your interactions, and please remember that my 2020 DHTWN Weather Calendar goes on sale this weekend, so please look out for that, as my calendars are filled with local/regional photos, tons of weather learnings, my weather haikus, and tons of moon phase, planetary, holiday and other info that make sweet gifts for yourself, your family, your friends or for everybody in your organization, and are a great way to support my work, if you find it to be helpful and/or valuable.

Thank you!
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BOMBOGENESIS COMMENCES: HEAVY RAIN, STREET FLOODING, ISOLATED OUTAGES, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGH PEAKS OF OUR REIGON WILL ACCOMPANY A POWERFUL STORM THAT IS ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW… WIND ADVISORY NOW POSTED FOR SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY… MID-OCTOBER GALE LASHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND… (6:50am Wednesday)

Good morning everybody, we have a major storm system on the way through the region, which will be the sole focus of this morning report.

We know it will be frosty Saturday morning, we know the weekend will be nice and mild into early next week, and we know more rain is likely by next Tuesday.

We even know that it’s quite cold out there this morning, with some temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with flurries reported at North Adams. #FirstFlakes

But the incoming storm system looks like a hell of a gale, and so that’s what needs to be discussed: timing, impacts, onset, departure – a stahm’s a brewin’ people!

DRY MUCH OF THE DAY
After our very chilly start this morning (and please let me know if you saw frost), we will rebound nicely because we have a southwest flow preceding our major storm tonight.

After a partly to mostly sunny start, clouds will build into the region, but before they do, highs will reach the upper 50s to low 60s for a fairly seasonable mid-October day.

TEMPERATURES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT
As we know, highs reach the upper 50s to low 60s today, and lows will dive into the 40s for a super raw night, with some 30s in the very highest terrain. Highs tomorrow will only be in the mid 40s to low 50s, with lows Thursday night in the low 40s.

STORM FORMATION
Our upcoming Nor’easter will form from the combination of powerful northern stream energy tapping cold air and tracking east into northern NY, while the secondary coastal low (that will blow up rapidly and bomb out into the primary low) taps tons of Gulf of Mexico moisture, then Atlantic moisture as it tracks from the eastern U.S. coastline over eastern Massachusetts tonight.

The potential is there for this storm to deepen RAPIDLY by about 30 millibars in 24 hours which is going to produce a lot of wind energy aloft, with a substantial amount of that transferring to the surface.

CONDITIONS GO DOWNHILL FAST THIS EVE
However, while a few showers may arrive between 3-5pm in the southern Taconics, Litchfield Hills of NW CT and the southern Berkshires, by sometime between 5-7pm, rain will overspread the entire region, and it will just dump rain at times with very heavy precipitation.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NORTHEAST CT TO WORCESTER AND POINTS EAST AND SOUTH
As this storm system bombs out right over southeastern New England, we could see strong to severe thunderstorms form, and some rotation is possible. We cannot rule out a quick tornado, though it’s a very low chance. Still, thunder and lightning is possible tonight.

RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
Southeast and east winds as this storm approaches overnight will gust 30-50mph in the WMass region, and possibly 45-70mph in the CMass and EMass regions!

The worst of the wind moves in after midnight and into the early portion of Thursday morning as the storm lifts northeast through EMass and into southeast NH and southern ME.

While we’re seeing the southeast and easterly winds, this will blow up the mountains of the WMass region, which will increase rainfall rates there, producing torrential rain at times.

Anywhere between 1.5-4.5″ of rainfall is expected through Thursday night.

In addition, as the storm lifts northeast, the upper level low moves overhead with a cold pool of air. A broad circulation will keep instability showers going tomorrow during the day, and winds will back to the northwest on the back side of the low and blow 30-45mph at times.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2000-2500 FT
And if that wasn’t enough, this storm will be pulling down and wrapping into its NW flank very cold air. This should cause rain to mix with and/or change to snow in the high passes of the southern Greens, Catskills, Berkshires and the Monadnock Region of southwest NH.

Do not be surprised if a coating to an inch of so of snowfall has whitened the ground in these areas by Thursday night!

DRIVING CONDITIONS/OUTAGES
Visibility will be lowered dramatically in heavy, wind-whipped rain tonight. In addition, substantial portions of foliage will be ripped down by this system, and scattered across road ways, making wet roads EVEN MORE SLIPPERY, so be careful out there.

These leaves will clog some drains, and contribute to areas of street flooding.

It’s been so dry that river flooding is unlikely, but can’t rule out an isolated flash flooding event if heavy rain persists long enough over one area.

Isolated power outages are possible tonight as still-leaved trees catch the rain and higher wind gusts, so be ready.

Ok folks, that about does it. Big, ripping storm on the way. I will update you later this afternoon as our storm sets in.

Thanks as always for getting these reports on your walls to let others know of what’s on the way.

Have a great day!