Good morning everybody showers and downpours are already building out in western NY and marching east towards Western Mass. We’ll see more in the way of clouds today, which should keep temps down into the low 80s, and it will breezy at times, with gusts up to 25-30mph.

We do have some dry air across the area still, but this will be displaced over time with more humid air working in ahead of a cold front, and from a return southerly flow of air, now that high pressure is off the coast and encouraging a southwest wind to move into New England ahead of a slow moving cold front that will approach Western Mass, but not fully move through until Wednesday some time.

Once we get to mid to late afternoon, we could start to see showers and even a thunderstorm in Western Mass, though heaviest showers should hold off until after dinner time into the evening and night. Any time after 4pm, roughly, we can start to expect some wet weather in places, as it should be scattered in nature.

So for Green River Festival goers, you should pack some rain gear and be prepared for showers to develop overhead at times. Any thunderstorms should stay below severe levels, but we could see a strong cell, or two.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase overnight, as copious moisture works in, as well as the right ingredients to keep some convection going overnight.

Monday and Tuesday could feature severe weather as the cold front moves closer, and instability values increase during the upcoming early week period. The main threat will be damaging winds and flash flooding, as a deep southwesterly flow at all levels of the atmosphere encourages (as I’m now learning) what is called “backbuilding” of showers and storms, where the genesis of a cell sort of stays stationary, and keeps regenerating, and sending out more and more rain ahead of it, resulting in flash flooding potential. Hail cannot be ruled out, nor can an isolated tornado.

I will update by tomorrow morning regarding this developing potential severe weather outbreak. Thank you.