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SECURELY BECOME A 2024 DHTWN SUPPORTER TODAY
We’re 77% of the way to the goal with 4 days left!
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
* Daily Celestials (Sun/Moon Data)
* Weekly Weather Nutshell
* Morning Discussion
* TIP: Scroll below for sections, or read all
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YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
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STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:49am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 7:05pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 12 hours and 16 minutes
MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 4:39pm this afternoon
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 6:20am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Gibbous (92.8%)
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR
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Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons, and Tandem Bagel Company… No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With *New Pizza Bagels(!)*, along with bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and West Springfield, or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website.
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YOUR WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL
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–Chilly start in the teens and 20s this morning, with highs rising into the mid 30s to low 40s under sunny skies today
–West winds may gust up to 25mph early and then slacken as clouds increase later in the day
–An upper trough in Ontario spawns a weak low center and swings it east toward New England while a southern stream juiced-up system tracks northeast toward the Carolina coast
–A northward-extending area of lower pressures aloft (a/k/a an “inverted trough”) pushes well north of the Carolina low center into New England
–This will direct a plume of heavy precipitation directly into our region making Saturday more or less a washout
–However, lows tonight are in the upper 20s to low 30s with remnant cold air and cooler high pressure setting up to our northwest
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SECURELY BECOME A 2024 DHTWN SUPPORTER TODAY
We’re 77% of the way to the goal with 4 days left!
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–As precip moves in around midnight, we will start as snow and sleet and light accumulations are expected mostly north of the MA/CT state line, though some icy spots may develop in the higher terrain of northwest CT towards western Hartford County
–Snow and sleet will change to freezing rain toward dawn, and then rain by mid to late morning, with more wintry impacts along and north of the Route 2 corridor tomorrow morning early
–Generally a coating to 2″ of snow/sleet with light glazes of ice in WMass and CMass south of Route 2 corridor, with 1-4″ of snow/sleet north of the Route 2 corridor in MA, SVT and SWNH, with some areas in the highest terrain of the Greens and northernmost SVT seeing 4-8″ fo snow and sleet
–Southern VT into southwest NH (especially SVT) could see a wintry impact day as icing may linger up there into Saturday afternoon, so if you have travel to do up that way, I would be aware of this
–After icing ends by mid day or so in northwest MA, most of MA and CT see a washout of heavy frain at times through the day and into the early evening with 1.5-3″ of rainfall expected
–Highs tomorrow reach the mid 30s to mid 40s, and lows will drop back into the 20s as we flip back to snow for a brief time Saturday night before the storm pulls away
–Sunday is WAY nicer, with gusty north winds to 25mph and highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s with lows in the 20s
–Early next week is continued sunny with high pressure dominating and bringing highs up into the 45-50º range before showers move through mid-week
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YOUR MORNING DISCUSSION
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Good morning everybody, we’ve got a potent, mult-hazard storm system on the way that will involve antecedent cold air interacting with a giant moisture finger sticking its wintry and flood-y business up into New England for Saturday, boo hoo to that!
The exact output of this system north of the Pike into SVT and SWNH in terms of how long snow, sleet and freezing rain lasts on Saturday (starting after midnight tonight) is exceedingly complex, and so there is a bust potential involved in this forecast.
It will come down to a matter of small temp changes at the surface and aloft, and at various elevations, that will dictate who sees what and how much in terms of snow/sleet accumulations and freezing rain impacts, before any change to rainfall.
Thee other question is will northern parts of SVT and SWNH even see a change to plain rain?
I beliieve they will, but there’s a low chance it just goes from snow to ice up in parts of the southern Greens and far northern Bennington and Windham Counties, so if you are further north your travel may be really impacted into Saturday afternoon.
Backing it up, we’re sunny today with westerly gusts to 25mph slackening late, and clouds will increase late in the day as well.
Clouds thicken tonight as a wave approaches from the west and starts interacting with our juiced-up Carolina low center approaching the southern Mid-Atlantic coastline.
This storm will stay mostly south of us, but will send a plume of moisture northward, which will be aided in its development by our incoming wave from the west.
By midnight or thereafter (as lows drop to either side of 30º) precip will break out in the form of snow and sleet, and light accumulations are possible (see totals up in the Nutshell section) into the daylight hours of Sunday morning.
Milder air will continue to work northward at all levels, causinig plain rain to develop in northern CT up into WMass and CMass with a change to freezing rain in the Berkshires, western hilltowns, and northern WMass and CMass. Snow and sleet may linger a bit in SVT and SWNH but should change to ice there too by late morning into early afternoon.
Rain will fall heavily at times tomorrow afternoon as any ice changes over to rain except in ithe highest and most sheletered valleys of SVT where icing may continue.
A fine line of convection moves through late afternoon and evening with heavy rain fall, and flooding potential of street and some rivers, though it wouldn’t be widespread I don’t believe.
Either way, Saturday afternoon is a washout with 1.5-3″ of rain expected, maybe a little more south of the Pike.
The storm system will pull away by Saturday night, but with colder high pressure to our northwest and a cold front approaching we could see a flip back to snow for a brief time which could lay donw a new coating to an inch on its way east and out of here, with lows in the 20s.
Without much wind, black ice may develop by early Sunday morning, so be aware of that as well.
Sunday looks lovely, but breezy with gusts to 25mph or so under sunny skies and highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with more sunshine early next week and milder temps well into the 40s before a frontal boundary brings some more rain showers by mid-week.
Have a great day, and remember that if you want to see my work continue here throughout 2024, it’s your modest support that keeps me on this job for you and yours (Drive ends Sunday… options include Cards, PayPal, Venmo, or Check, even $10 helps!)
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SECURELY BECOME A 2024 DHTWN SUPPORTER TODAY
We’re 77% of the way to the goal with 4 days left!
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>>> BE KIND <<<
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut