MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MASSPIKE THANKS TO LIFT FROM OUR UPPER LOW PASSING THROUGH, WITH SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH… EMASS WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF WORCESTER COUNTY GET AN UNRELATED BUT SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY… FROM NOW UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON, SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW AND ICE WITH SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE, SOME FOLKS SEE DRY PERIODS TODAY, TOO… (7:30AM MONDAY, 12/2/19)
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WELCOME NEW FOLKS!
Good morning everybody, I think about 750 new folks just landed on this page over the past few days with this present storm coverage, and I heartfully welcome you into the fold. I’ve been running this page for over 8 years now, and I post every single day, and multiple times a day during in-storm coverage, and I do my best to answer all your questions when I’m able and A) not developing additional reports and reviewing info and B) not sleeping, eating or working on other things.
REVIEW OF LAST NIGHT’S SNOWFALL
With respect to yesterday’s snowfall, while I thought it would be plowable, substantial and impactful, I did not expect southern VT would get hammered with 18″ of snow.
The one last night that dumped 12-18″ over southern VT, portions of Franklin County, the northern Berkshires, western hilltowns and the Taconics was a prolific snow producer – a classic stalling dumping band that if you get under it can produce snowfall rates of 2-5″/hour, and this one did just that! The rest of us received more like 5-10″ lower in the Pioneer Valley of WMass and northern CT and points east.
Sometimes you just can’t predict how these snow bands will behave with respect to their track, speed, intensity, will they stall, where will they stall, etc.
Instead of fully lifting north and northeast THROUGH the region, this main snow band ended up slowing down, pivoting from a northwest-to-southeast axis to a west-to-east axis, more or less stalling over Franklin County, northern Berkshires/Taconics, and southern VT (the jackpot zone) east into southwest NH.
COLDER AIR HELD MORE TIGHTLY
This also halted the northward extent of the warmer air aloft that have given us mixed snow and sleet across the region overnight, vs. more freezing drizzle and freezing rain, which seems to have been relegated to southern Worcester County and northeast CT this morning.
In other words, colder air has held stronger in our region. This is a good thing, because some periods of lighter snow and sleet showers is preferable in this setup over a long duration period of freezing rain showers or freezing drizzle patches.
STORM SETUP FOR TODAY
Our secondary low pressure system formed and is now drifting slowly east of the southern NJ coastline and will bob and wobble in its track east-northeast toward Nantucket Island, eventually bombing out a good 50-75 miles east of Boston tomorrow morning, creating a heavy snow band in EMass in the morning that will snarl traffic back that way and cause issues through early afternoon.
At the same time, our remnant upper level low is circulating over western PA this morning and slowly tracking east as well.
It is this upper level low that will be responsible for redeveloping moderate to heavy snow bands over WMass, SVT, SWNH, northern CMass the Taconics, and to a lesser extent northern CT and southern CMass by mid/late afternoon and through tonight, lasting into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday morning.
This upper low will cycle through the region, and create more lift into the snow growth zone aloft, producing moderate to heavy snow bands tonight, especially north of the MassPike, and I will go into additional expected snow accumulations later in this report.
THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
For now, as of about 7am as I am trudging through the back half of this report, and as we’ve entered phase 2 of this storm, the flow is southeasterly across the region.
The upper low is still way west of us, and the secondary surface low is due south, so we’re getting bands of lighter to at times moderate precipitation in the form of freezing rain and sleet along and south of the MA/CT border, with snow showers north of there.
The air clearly is colder at all levels this morning than what was predicted yesterday.
As these snow and ice showers pivot southeast to northwest through the region today, some additional light accumulations of a coating to 3 inches is possible, the higher end of that range over the Berkshires, western hilltowns and SVT.
At times it will be snowing or icing, and at times it will be just cloudy.
Then as our upper low approaches from the west creating lift in the atmosphere, and as our secondary low pulls east of our longitude, pulling even colder air in at all levels, any ice will turn to snow, and snow will start accumulating more by sunset as it becomes moderate to heavy at times, with some 1-2″ per hour snowfall rates possible once again, although I don’t think we see as much as we did from the first phase of the storm as we will in phase 3.
WIND AND TEMPS
Highs will reach the mid 20s to low 30s today, and northeast to northerly winds will gust 20-30mph at times, possibly up to 35mph in the high terrain.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
I believe that north of the MassPike in WMass, including all of Berkshire County, Litchfield County, the Taconics, including all of the western hilltowns, southern VT, southwest NH, and northern Worcester County will see an additional 5-10″ of snowfall, which includes whatever light accumulations fall during the daylight hours. Another foot is not out of the question in the northern Berkshires, west county, and SVT.
Some southern VT, northern Berkshires, and western Franklin County locations could end up with a total 24-30″ jackpot from this long duration snowstorm!
For points along and south of the Pike from Westfield, MA south to Hartford, CT and points east through much of eastern Hampden County, north-central and northeast CT and southern Worcester County, I think 3-6″ additional snow will fall, WITH THE EXCEPTION of easternmost Worcester County including the City of Worcester which will be dealing with some light to moderate accumulating snows tomorrow morning from the comma head of the bombing low east of Boston – those folks could see 5-10″ additional.
BUST POTENTIAL TO THE UPSIDE
Please remember that I said this whole event could bust high to the up side with 15-25″ for some, and while I said it was a low chance, it looks like that is what is transpiring.
We will see how how it all plays out today and tonight!
Thanks for ALL of your reports yesterday, and please keep them coming today.
Speaking of which… how much snow did you get in your town by this morning, and what’s it doing by you as you read this? Also, get some gifts for you or yours below…
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